The Cranes Keep Rising, But Who Are They Building For?

Three major planning consents granted by the Greater London Authority in the past six weeks have unlocked more than 4,200 new homes across four boroughs, the largest single quarter of approvals since the Sadiq Khan era ended. On paper, that sounds like progress. On the ground in Woolwich, Wembley Park and the stretch of the Old Kent Road threading through Bermondsey and Peckham, the story is considerably more complicated.

London's average house price crossed £512,000 in May 2026, according to the Land Registry's most recent figures — a 4.1 per cent rise year-on-year that has outpaced wage growth for the third consecutive quarter. The timing matters. Stamp duty thresholds reverted in April 2025, pushing first-time buyers back toward new-build schemes that carry Help-to-Buy-style shared ownership structures. Developers know this. Lenders know this. And buyers in Zones 4 and 5 are discovering it the hard way when they sit down with a mortgage broker.

What the New Schemes Actually Deliver

The most scrutinised of the recent approvals is the Gallions Reach regeneration in Newham, where Countryside Partnerships and the London Legacy Development Corporation have been given the green light for 1,100 homes on the old retail park site adjacent to the DLR station. A third of those units are designated affordable, split between London Affordable Rent and shared ownership — a ratio that critics at the London Tenants Federation argue falls well short of the 50 per cent target Khan's administration had pushed for. The first phase, 340 homes, is expected to begin on site by the spring of 2027.

Further west, at Wembley Park, Quintain's long-running masterplan has entered its sixth phase with planning approved for 890 homes in two towers reaching 27 and 31 storeys above Olympic Way. One-bedroom flats in the completed earlier phases are currently listed between £425,000 and £470,000 — figures that sit comfortably above what a household earning the London median income of roughly £41,000 can service on a standard repayment mortgage, even with a 10 per cent deposit. Quintain's marketing pitches the area's proximity to the new Wembley Park interchange, which feeds directly into the Metropolitan and Jubilee lines, as justification for the pricing tier.

The Old Kent Road Opportunity Area tells a third story. Southwark Council has been designating this two-mile corridor for intensification since 2017, and the arrival of the Bakerloo Line extension — now confirmed for completion in 2031 following the February spending review — has sharpened developer appetite considerably. Land prices along the route between the Bricklayers Arms junction and Peckham have risen approximately 18 per cent since January 2025, according to data from Savills' London residential land team. Schemes from Berkeley Group and Mount Anvil are both in various stages of pre-application consultation, with Berkeley targeting a 2028 start on a 650-home mixed-use block near the Surrey Canal Road junction.

The Affordability Maths Don't Add Up for Many

Buyers who can stretch to a new-build shared ownership product are finding entry points at around £112,500 for a 25 per cent share of a one-bedroom flat at developments like Peabody's Thamesmead Waterfront scheme, which launched its second tranche in May. The full open market value on those units sits at £450,000. Monthly combined rent and mortgage costs on a 25 per cent share typically run to £1,350 to £1,500 — cheaper than renting privately in Zone 3, but still representing roughly 44 per cent of take-home pay for a single person on a £35,000 salary.

For buyers trying to navigate this market, the practical calculus is increasingly clear: the Elizabeth line corridor from Stratford through to Woolwich and Abbey Wood still offers the best value per square foot for new builds in inner east London, with prices running £50,000 to £80,000 below comparable Zone 3 equivalents. Buyers prepared to wait 18 to 24 months — and to take on a new-build in the early stages of construction — can often negotiate incentives worth 3 to 5 per cent of the purchase price. The Bakerloo extension corridor is the longer-term bet, but the Gallions Reach and Thamesmead schemes suggest that even there, the window for genuinely accessible pricing is narrowing faster than most planners anticipated.